Chinese economic hubs at risk from higher sea levels

STEVEN BERNARD — LONDON CHRISTIAN SHEPHERD — BEIJING Trillions of dollars of economic activity along China’s east coast, including $974bn in Shanghai alone, are exposed to oceans rising as a result of climate change this century, according to Financial Times analysis of unpublished data. The economic might of Shanghai, the leading Chinese financial centre built between the Yangtze River estuary and Hangzhou Bay, is most exposed to a rise in sea levels, with an estimated $973.7bn of 2019 gross domestic product at risk. Suzhou and Jiaxing, which are within 100km to the west of Shanghai, were ranked second and third out of the 34 cities in the data set, with $330.4bn and $128.8bn of 2019 GDP exposed respectively. Beyond the densely populated metropolitan centres, other critical pieces of China’s industrial supply chains and high-tech research and development zones face similar risks. Among industrial landmarks found in the highly exposed areas are the headquarters of Alibaba, China’s largest ecommerce platform, in Hangzhou city; the Suzhou industrial park that is home to Panasonic’s new China headquarters; and Tesla’s Shanghai gigafactory. The analysis combines sea-level estimates by Climate Central, a US-based non-profit, with unpublished data from researchers in Finland that break down 2019 purchasing power parity GDP per capita and use population density to work out grid-by-grid estimates of growth. China’s ministry of ecology and environment did not respond to a request for comment about the FT’s analysis. Although tides are unlikely to rise to levels that would submerge infrastructure for decades, researchers warn that intensifying floods, storm damage and soil erosion, as well as reduced fresh water supplies, threaten to undermine economic growth long before then. Despite the high degree of exposure, the effect of sea-level rise on economic growth has traditionally received little public attention in China. Rana Foroohar see Opinion 
Jun 14, 2021 16:34
financial times |

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