Tehran fears return of Trump
and thinks Biden is too weak
to strike a deal, say insiders
Nearly five months after hardliner
Ebrahim Raisi was elected president of
Iran, the Islamic republic and western
powers have finally agreed a date on
which to resume stalled talks in Vienna
about reviving the nuclear deal.
But days after last week’s announcement of the November 29 talks, Iranian
officials voiced serious doubts that
negotiations with representatives from
the UK, France, Germany, Russia and
China over a deal that US president Donald Trump abandoned in 2018 would
deliver much.
While US and European officials say
they were close to reaching agreement
with Raisi’s moderate predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, the hardliners that now
dominate Tehran have made clear that
they do not expect much progress.
“Holding nuclear talks is not our top
priority as Iran’s new strategy is not to
count on the JCPOA [nuclear deal] any
more and not to invest in something that has failed once,” a regime insider
close to hardliners said.
“The other side will come to the talks
and tell Iran ‘you are a bad boy’. Iran,
which is committed to diplomacy and
negotiations, will calmly respond by
putting its wish list on the table, which
the US will probably find to be too costly
and unacceptable.”
Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to
curb its nuclear activities in return for
the lifting of international sanctions.
Trump then accused Iran of violating
the spirit of the deal by being “the leading state sponsor of terror” and pursuing an ambitious ballistic missile programme. He imposed crippling sanctions on the country, which remain in
place.
The new Iranian president believes
that the country’s economy can thrive,
even with sanctions, by boosting domestic production and improving trade
relationships with neighbouring countries.
The Islamic regime, which has
expanded its uranium enrichment
activities after the US reimposed sanctions, is also not convinced by US president Joe Biden’s promises that Washington will return to the deal provided Iran
also returns to full compliance.
With Iran concerned about a possible
return of Trump to power in the 2024
US election, Iranian authorities have
asked for a “guarantee” from Biden that
a future US government will not abandon the agreement.
Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, has also suggested the US
could release $10bn of Iran’s money frozen in overseas banks as a goodwill gesture and a first step, conditions that the
republic may put forward in this
month’s talks.
“The US president, who has not much
authority, is not ready to give guarantees,” Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security
official, said recently.
Hardliners question Biden’s ability to
follow through. “Biden is weak and cannot afford domestically to strike a deal
with Iran,” said the insider. “Can he
release Iran’s money with so much
opposition [to Iran] in the Congress and
Senate? The answer is No.”
In previous rounds, the EU has
chaired Joint Commission meetings in the basement of a luxury hotel in
Vienna and led shuttle diplomacy
between Iranian envoys and a US delegation in a nearby hotel. This is unlikely
to change. Washington’s special envoy
on Iran, Robert Malley, will go to Vienna
for the talks, but he is not expected to
participate directly in them.
“Iran will negotiate with the US only if
we see a real change of approach,” a second Iranian insider added. “But considering all the political obstacles in Iran
and the US, no talks with the US and no
deal are foreseen for the foreseeable
future.”
The EU is also cautious about the
potential for substantial breakthroughs.
But bloc officials stress that simply
securing a commitment to restart talks
is already an achievement.
In a sign of how tough the talks might
be, France, the UK and Germany —
alongside the US — last month blamed
Iran for rapidly advancing its nuclear
programme and hampering monitoring
efforts by the International Atomic
Energy Agency that are “jeopardis[ing]
the possibility of a return to the JCPOA”.
Progress, the four countries said, “will
only be possible if Iran changes
course . . . That is the only sure way to
avoid a dangerous escalation, which is
not in any country’s interest.”