The continent may avoid the worst this winter but next year looks troubling
Not so long ago, apocalyptic forecasts
abounded on the outlook for European
energy supplies this winter. Now it
seems the worst-case scenarios for
widespread blackouts and rationing
may have been averted. Natural gas
prices have fallen sharply from an alltime peak in August. The EU’s gas storage has been filled to 95 per cent capacity. An unusually mild autumn has
helped. Fears that Europe might run
short of energy reserves to get households and businesses through the colder
months have been assuaged by rapid
action to build up stocks, boost efficiency and procure alternate supplies.
But the region is not out of the woods
yet. Getting through winter 2023 could
bean even greater challenge.
Europe must not be lulled into a false
sense of security. This time next year,
storage sites may only be 65 per cent
full, given the difficulties it could face in
refilling them from the spring, according to the International Energy Agency.
For starters, weather conditions could
quickly turn and deplete stores. There
may belittleor noRussian gas to rebuild
reserves too. Before Vladimir Putin
reduced exports to a trickle in September by indefinitely closing Nord Stream
1 — the main pipeline carrying gas from
Russia to Europe, Russian gas had been
importantinmeeting storage targets.
The EU hasalso replacedmissingRussian pipeline gas with bountiful imports
ofliquefied natural gas so far this year—
including from Russia, albeit from a low
base. This has been made possible by
weaker demand elsewhere. China is a
big gas guzzler, but weak economic
activity linked to its Covid lockdowns
have curbed its appetite for now. If its
LNG imports rebound, China could
absorb a significant amount of the
expected increase in supply in 2023.
With planned increases in global LNG
export facilities not set to come into
operation fora fewyears,Europe should
expect stiffer competition for the gas.
Non-Russian gas supplies— including
from Norway, Azerbaijan and Algeria —
have also helped to plug the shortfall.
But there may be limited scope to
extract more from these sources. With
the French nuclear industry beset by
maintenance issues and little political
desire to boost fossil fuel generation,
banking on alternative EU energy
sources would not be wise either. Altogether, supply uncertainty and ample
demand means European natural gas
prices are still projected to be higher
than current levels toward the end of
next year, and are expected to remain
wellabove prewar prices forawhile.
The many risks to energy security
nextyearmeanefforts need to be redoubled to avoid shortfalls next winter.
Faced with uncertainty over supply,
industry in particular is struggling to
plan ahead. The rapid deployment of
renewable energy, heat pumps and
energy efficiency measures will remain
important, along with strengthening
initiatives to constrain gas demand.
Many governments have so far favoured
price caps to cushion the high cost ofliving, but they dull incentives to reduce
gas consumption. Some EU nations are
also pushing for a misguided price ceiling on gas imports, which might simply
drive gas cargoes away to better-paying
buyers elsewhere.
The continent has made enormous
progressin adapting tolifewithout Russian energyin sucha short spaceof time.
Russian pipeline supplies now only
account for 9 per cent of EU supply,
down from 40 per centlast year. But the
tighter, pricier energy market has
caused significant damage: factories
have closed down and households are
suffering a drop in living standards.
Such efforts and sacrifices have been
hard but they will intensify if the continent comes up short nextwinter.Nowis
not the time for complacency