As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) marks the beginning of its 66th anniversary, one fact is clearer than ever: Without stable, predictable and responsible management of the global oil market, economic growth and social welfare are exposed to serious instability. A lack of predictability and stability would have far-reaching consequences for global oil and energy markets and, ultimately, the international economy.
OPEC was established in Baghdad in September 1960 with a clear objective: to promote reasonable stability in the oil market. Its five founding members were determined to establish a fairer order in the global economy — one that would safeguard the interests of both producers and consumers while creating predictable conditions for investment.
Over the past 66 years, the organization has repeatedly emerged from major crises, from the nationalization of oil industries in many member states and the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s to the price collapses of 2014 and 2020.
Today, however, in the era of OPEC+, the organization's mission has become more complex.
OPEC, long identified with a 13-member group, has experienced repeated changes in membership, from the departures of Gabon and Ecuador in the 1990s and Indonesia in the 2000s to the more recent exits of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
As global demand has grown and new producers have emerged, OPEC's decisive share of the market has declined. In the 1990s, global oil demand was close to 60 million barrels per day, with OPEC accounting for about 27% of supply. Such a large share allowed the organization to help balance the market by adjusting its production and supply.
Today, global oil demand is approaching 104 million barrels per day, while OPEC's share, excluding its allies, is below 20%. In today's energy economy, therefore, OPEC+ has become an inseparable part of the global energy equation. The 23-member OPEC+ alliance supplied about 47% of global oil demand in 2025.
The participation of a large number of major and smaller producers in the coordinated framework promoted by OPEC helped restore stability to global energy markets following the COVID-19 crisis and the sudden collapse in a significant portion of global demand.
The UAE's departure from OPEC was unwelcome, but there is little doubt that more oil producers will join the OPEC+ alliance in the years ahead. Producers outside the alliance cannot indefinitely capture OPEC+'s market share.
At the same time, growing domestic consumption among OPEC+ members must be taken into account. In 2025, OPEC+ countries consumed about 40% of their own oil production domestically. OPEC members and their allies are facing rising domestic demand, although part of that demand is met through refined-product exports.
The Flexibility Test: When the Structure Meets a New Reality
OPEC's history is a history of resilience in the face of crises. But today's challenge is different. It is structural.
1. Changing Ownership and Incentives
National oil companies are gradually transferring a larger share of production and supply operations to international companies. Under this new model, international companies have an incentive to maximize production in the short term.
That logic can conflict with OPEC's principle of managing supply for long-term market stability. As a result, some countries may effectively shift part of their responsibility for market stability onto the remaining members of the organization. Production-sharing agreements can also come into tension with OPEC's strategic principles.
2. The Race to Produce During the Window of Opportunity
Member states are seeking to rapidly increase production by attracting investment. As the global energy narrative increasingly focuses on new energy sources, traditional oil producers are trying to maximize their production capacity during what they see as a remaining window of opportunity for oil.
In effect, producers increasingly see themselves competing with other energy sources.
Yet OPEC's message is not about eliminating other energy sources in favor of oil. This creates a paradox: How can countries simultaneously pursue higher national production capacity and preserve collective market stability?
At 66, OPEC's answer lies in updating its decision-making mechanisms.
Traditional quota mechanisms need to be modernized. The organization needs modern incentive mechanisms that allow countries to increase their market share without allowing supply growth to undermine market stability.
In other words, mechanisms must be developed that reconcile national sovereignty over resources with collective interests.
Unilateral Sanctions and Global Energy Security
One of the main factors behind insufficient upstream investment has been US sanctions against the oil industries of major producing countries.
When capital cannot reach new wells, new production capacity cannot be created. As a result, market share shifts to other producers, while the energy security of numerous countries is put at risk.
The crisis currently unfolding in the Middle East around OPEC's anniversary is, in this view, linked to sanctions and coercive policies that have enabled U.S. shale oil to take market share away from OPEC while exposing the global economy to serious risks.
The United States, without assuming a corresponding commitment to oil-market stability, the global economy or the environment, continues to increase its production and uses that position to exert pressure on consuming countries.
The Core: The Responsibility of the Five Founding Countries
At the heart of the increasingly complex architecture of the global oil market and OPEC, the role of the five founding countries has become more important than ever: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela.
These countries possess enormous proven reserves and have some of the longest experience in managing the oil market. Their behavior can influence the direction of the market.
Strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation among Tehran, Riyadh, Baghdad and Caracas is more than a political slogan; it is a technical necessity.
Such convergence would send two messages to the market:
A message of stability: Supply decisions are based on collective wisdom rather than destructive competition.
A message of responsibility: Major producers are willing to bear the cost of stability so the entire market can be protected from excessive volatility.
The situation surrounding Venezuela illustrates this necessity. A return of Venezuelan production could help support global supply. But resolving the resulting market equation requires dialogue within the OPEC framework.
Once the current crisis in the Middle East ends, organizing an OPEC summit would be highly desirable. Iran could undoubtedly provide a suitable venue for a gathering of OPEC leaders.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC and OPEC+ meetings increasingly shifted to videoconferences. Oil ministers, who once played an important role in resolving complex bilateral and multilateral issues, have consequently lost some of that diplomatic function.
OPEC+ should increase the number of in-person meetings so that, in a constructive environment, oil ministers can resume their role in revitalizing energy diplomacy and strengthening bilateral and multilateral relations.
The Future of Demand: Managing the Transition, Not Denying It
Debate over the future of oil is often divided into two extremes: “the end of oil” versus “endless demand growth.” Both narratives are open to debate.
The middle-ground reality is that global oil demand will continue to grow in the short and medium term. Population growth, urbanization in Asia and Africa, petrochemical development and heavy transportation will all remain dependent on oil.
Over the longer term, however, alternative energy sources will capture a larger share of the energy mix.
Under these conditions, OPEC+'s role will shift from “price management” to “transition management.”
The alliance must prevent two potentially damaging scenarios:
Scenario one: Insufficient investment leading to supply shortages and a major supply shock later this decade.
Scenario two: Excessive investment resulting in oversupply and a collapse in prices.
Only coordinated, long-term planning can guide the market through this narrow path. This is what the market calls predictability — something the global economy urgently needs.
Dual Responsibility: The Environment and Energy Security
Any vision of the future of energy that ignores climate considerations is incomplete. The oil industry cannot separate itself from the debate over climate change.
At this point, OPEC and its Secretariat face a dual responsibility.
First: Defending the right to development.
OPEC must defend the right of developing countries and oil exporters in international forums and sustainable-development conferences, including future meetings in Rio de Janeiro, to use their natural resources for economic development and revenue generation.
An abrupt halt to oil investment would risk creating energy shortages and poverty for billions of people.
Second: Demonstrating responsibility.
Alongside defending producers' rights, OPEC must present a scientific and forward-looking narrative about the oil industry's role in a balanced energy transition — one that protects the environment while preventing an energy crisis caused by rushed policies.
Balancing environmental protection with continued investment in fossil fuels to prevent energy crises is a responsibility that can be fulfilled only through greater solidarity and coordination within the organization.
Conclusion: The Message of OPEC at 66
OPEC has now existed for 66 years. During that time, it has demonstrated that it can withstand major storms.
But today's storm is different. It is a storm of change: changes in membership, changes in the competitive landscape, changes in demand and changes in global expectations.
The message of OPEC's 66th anniversary should be clear:
We are ready to change ourselves to preserve stability in the global oil market.
In November, the United Nations climate change conference is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. OPEC should be prepared by then to coordinate and organize an active and balanced presence at the COP conference.
The global oil market still needs an anchor. As long as rationality, dialogue and collective responsibility guide OPEC, that anchor will remain OPEC.
The future of OPEC is bright — and more necessary than ever.
With realism, the organization enters its 66th year.
By Fereydoun Barkeshli, Senior oil expert