BBC
They have a word for
it in German – kohleausstieg, which means "coal phase out". Germany is the biggest user of coal for power generation
in Europe, and the fourth largest in the world after China, India and the US.
But it has pledged to stop using it altogether by 2038.
For lignite, the low-quality soft coal that is the most polluting,
Germany has even brought the phase out forward to 2030.
Currently some 20% of German power generation comes from coal, but it
wishes to end this as it focuses on growing wind and solar.
In fact, Germany
already gets more than half of its electricity from renewables, 59% last year.
As back-up to wind
and solar, especially for the winter months, it wants to replace coal with more
natural gas power stations. These generally release half as much carbon dioxide
as coal, and gas currently accounts for 13% of German electricity generation.
However, the recent
jump in global gas prices following the US-Israel conflict with Iran, has
encouraged a number of countries to reconsider coal as an energy source.
Japan has loosened
rules to allow for the increased use of coal-fired power plants, Italy is
delaying the closure of its remaining stations until 2038, and India has postponed
maintenance shutdowns.
But what about
Germany? Back in March, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: "We must supply
this country with electricity. I am not prepared to jeopardise the core of our
industry simply because we have adopted phase-out plans that have become
unrealistic."
Was this the start
of a phase-out of the phase-out? Is Germany going to keep coal power after all?
The problem for the
German government regarding what the country burns to make electricity is a
two-fold one of supply and price. Germany has an abundance of readily
available, cheap lignite. It has the largest reserves in Europe and the third
biggest globally. It is entirely self-sufficient in the fuel.
By contrast, it has
to import 95% of its natural gas supplies. So when the global cost of gas
shoots up, switching back to the much cheaper lignite is financially very
appealing. And Germany doesn't have to worry about supply shortages.
Meanwhile, nuclear
is not an option, as Germany closed the last of its nuclear power stations in
2023.
Perhaps
unsurprisingly, German energy firm LEAG, which is the country's second biggest
miner of lignite, is upbeat at the suggestion that coal-powered energy power
could get a reprieve.
"We very much welcome
the fact that the German federal government is placing not only medium, but
also long-term, security of supply at the heart of its energy policy
considerations," it said in a statement.
It also highlighted
that it increased supplies of lignite to compensate for the halting of Russian
gas imports after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "We already
demonstrated our ability to quickly draw on reserves to return to the market
when the situation demands it."
By contrast, Hauke
Hermann, a senior researcher with the Öko environmental research institute insists
that more coal is not the answer. Instead, he wants to see a further increase
in the use of renewables.
For some in German
industry, they just want a decision regarding gas or coal. "Our industry
needs reliable energy," says Wolfgang Große Entrup, director general of
the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI).
"Renewable energy
alone cannot yet guarantee this… Companies will only invest billions if they
can trust that energy will remain reliably available at competitive prices in
the future."
While practically
no-one outside of the far-right AfD party is calling to scrap the coal
phase-out altogether, some loosening of the phase-out is another matter.
One possible
compromise being put forward concerns six coal power stations that use imported
hard coal, which is less polluting than the domestic German lignite. These are
currently only used as back-up, to top up the national grid as and when
required, such as during a cold winter.
The owner of some of
these power plants, Steag Iqony Group, says they should be allowed to operate
all the time.
"If they were
temporarily allowed to resume regular production, they could deliver
electricity to several million homes," says a spokesman for the company.
"We think these plants should be used in order to strengthen security and
affordability of supply."
A parliamentary
committee set up in March is studying this possibility.
The difficulty for
the German government is that it is a grand coalition comprising the
centre-right CDU/CSU parties and the left-wing SPD. The former are more
favourable to extending the use of coal, while the latter is against.
The SPD's energy
spokeswoman Nina Scheer warns that relaxing the rules for coal would be
"counterproductive for the energy transition and mean new fossil lock-in
effects".
By contrast, the
deputy leader of the CDU, and Minister-President of the German region of
Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, says: "Germany, as a major industrial nation,
must do everything in its power to ensure that energy remains affordable."
He adds: "The
energy transition must be completely recalculated. It should not be a matter of
cost, but rather a matter of realistically considering security of supply and
affordability."
The government must
decide this year whether the 2030 deadline for lignite phase-out must be
respected, or whether some capacity may be maintained for a limited period as a
strategic reserve.
And in August, the
government will publish a statutory review of the coal phase-out which will
include the impact it is having on energy supply, security and prices. The
original purpose was to see if the Kohleausstieg could be accelerated. It is
now quite possible that it will be used to slow it down.