Rystad Energy
Data
center developers are scrambling for reliable power, turning away from
congested grids and toward on-site fuel cells. Rystad Energy research and
analysis projects a tenfold increase in fuel cell market revenues by 2030,
rising from around $2.8 billion in 2025 to roughly $30 billion, as AI computing
demand drives unprecedented growth in data center construction. A contracted
order book of approximately 9 gigawatts (GW), including framework agreements
with Oracle, AEP, Equinix, and Brookfield, points to growing confidence among
major operators in fuel cells as a viable long-term power source.
US
grid interconnection timelines have tripled since 2015, now stretching to three
to six years for large loads. Rystad Energy’s research projects 10.4 GW of
cumulative fuel cell demand from data centers between 2026 and 2030, with
around 40% of projected 2030 US data center capacity modeled as likely to
pursue dedicated on-site power generation rather than grid connection. Unlike
conventional grid connections or large gas plants, fuel cells can be deployed
quickly and run on natural gas today, transitioning to biogas, renewable
natural gas or hydrogen as supply matures, while producing lower on-site
emissions than combustion alternatives. North America is expected to account
for 91% of installed global on-site power generation capacity, thanks to a
combination of grid delays, federal tax incentives and an established domestic
supply chain.
Power
availability has become one of the defining constraints on data center growth,
and operators are increasingly looking beyond the grid for solutions. Fuel
cells have moved from a niche application to a measurable part of the firm
power mix. The question now is whether the supply chain can scale at the same
pace as demand.
Fuel
cell manufacturers are expanding capacity in response. Aggregate operational
and planned manufacturing output is on track to reach 4 GW per year by 2030, up
from 1.8 GW today. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) have become the dominant
technology for always-on data center power, accounting for around 53% of
cumulative stationary deliveries to date. Bloom Energy holds virtually every
primary-load SOFC contract in the visible order book, a concentration that
presents supply chain risk if demand accelerates faster than one manufacturer’s
production capacity.
That
concentration extends to materials. Bloom Energy’s SOFC technology depends on
scandium, a critical metal used in its electrolyte chemistry. At full
utilization of its planned 2 GW manufacturing expansion, Bloom’s theoretical
scandium requirement would approach the size of the entire global market,
currently estimated to be around 60 tonnes per year. This potential bottleneck is
compounded by the fact that China heavily controls the global scandium supply
chain. Competitors using alternative electrolyte chemistries do not share this
exposure, and a sustained supply constraint could influence how market share
develops as the sector scales. Rystad Energy projects SOFC system costs will
fall 20 to 25% by 2030, though the pace will depend on manufacturers’ ability
to reduce costs across the full delivered system, not the fuel cell stack alone.